Monday, January 2, 2012

2011 Wrap-up: Review of Last Year's Mob4Hire Predictions

First off… a SUPER BIG THANKS once again to our customers, mobsters, partners and investors for another year of keeping us on the leading edge of mobile quality assurance. We'll unveil our mobile trends 2012 predictions in the next week.

Now, it’s time to reflect on 2011’s predictions… In 2010 we gave ourselves a B+ with a few notable highlights, even if we do say so ourselves.  This year, we’re closer to a B:

The Platform Race is Far From Over.  We said – ‘Apple and Android would not be the “winners” because the marathon will continue to play out over the next 5 to 10 years’ (wow – talk about hedging your bets, when you think about it - neither of these two platforms were here 5 years ago!). Vision Mobile’s Developer Economics 2011 told us Java ME and Symbian have the highest developer attrition rate, but Mobile web as a platform has moved in to third position. We just may have to wait out the next 5 to 10 years to see if we’re right…

The Geeks Shall Inherit the Earth.  We said – ‘There will not be enough talent for everyone... and people who CREATE software experiences decide what platforms to support’.  Problem is we didn’t really have a metric for this one. We’re basing our score on the ‘vibes’. See also prediction #1.

App Stores Will Continue to Explode.  We said – ‘There will be over 200 app stores at this time next year.’ Based on the count it’s closer to 125 – We thought the carriers and online retailers would be jumping on board, but we’ve learned that the sheer volume of apps combined with the lack of capacity to screen and market apps is slowing things down.

The Cost of Developing Mobile Experiences Will Increase Significantly.

The Number of Ad Networks Will Explode.  ‘We'll expect to see many carrier-specific ad networks pop-up this year.’ Seems like Mobile Network Operators are missing the boat on some great opportunities as we saw very little increase here. Attractive, with ad revenues expected to hit $3.3B (up from $1.6B in 2010 -- Gartner via mobiThinking) and the Networks own the local customers.

Microsoft Regains Share.  IDC (March 2011 via reported Windows Phone/Mobile had a 5.5% market share and more telling an expected 67.1% CAGR from 2011 to 2015.

Brands Will Embrace Mobile for Advertising and Engagement. While Brands saw a decline in engagement due to the recession, comscore’s “Do you buy the brand you want most?” index fell from 54% in 2008 to 43% in 2011 and have responded more on-line advertising (23% increase, according to comscore Oct 2011. The distribution has been all media and Mobile is starting to attract attention… see also mobile Ad Network prediction.

RIM and NOKIA Dance the Dance of Disruption.  We said – ‘RIM and NOKIA are arguably the biggest of handset and O/S manufacturers that are threatened by the new wave of mobile… and have ben successful because the know the value of a good Telecom relationship’. Sadly their dance was not as good as we thought.

Enterprise Embraces Mobile as a Productivity Tool, not just for Communications.   According to iPass 2011 Mobile Enterprise Report provisioning of smartphones and tablets in the next year continues to increase significantly.

HP and DELL Try, but Stumble in the Mobile and Tablet Space.  The HP TouchPad launched in July, 2011 – pulled in August, 2011 and the Dell Streak was pulled in December 2011– RIP…

So, what will happen in 2012? Stay tuned ... we'll post our thoughts soon.

Cheers from the team!